The Biz Runner

Boston v. New York: Which is More Volatile? (November 9) I love it when people take their expertise and apply it in unlikely ways – especially when they apply to running. Paul Kedrosky is a trader who writes a blog called "Infectious Greed". He recently analyzed the volatility between the Boston and New York Marathons.

I will try not to butcher this in attempting to explain what Kedrosky is getting at: Volatility refers to the standard deviation between results – basically how far off the average result can you expect a future result to be. In terms of marathons – you would expect the volatility to keep trending down. As runners become faster they will typically drive the winning times down. Eventually the times will plateau and you’ll see most winning marathon times in the same general neighborhood.

With low volatility, you won’t see wild swings in winning marathon times. Its more likely you will see most men’s winners of the NYC Marathon finish closer to 2:09 four years in a row than see four years of 2:09, 2:20, 2:10, 2:17.

He’s created two graphs showing the differences in the two marathons and is looking for suggestions to explain the variance. The top contenders:

1. April weather in Boston is more unpredictable than November in NY.
2. Boston is run going toward the ocean, so the wind is more of a factor
3. The heat of 2007 led to a higher finishing time, creating an anomaly and skewing the results

You can head over to the site to check out the graphs add your thoughts:

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/11/why_is_the_bost.html

What's Next for "Diesel" Dean Karnazes? (November 9) That’s what Volkswagen is calling him these days. I recently told you about how Dean ran the Chicago marathon – twice – to promote a VW diesel car. It was a really well conceived and executed idea by VW. Now the company as released a video of Dean during the stunt. You can see it below. A couple of interesting things here:

First, it looks like he’s building up to another remarkable stunt. Running a marathon in every country in 2012. You can see his tweet on the subject in the video. I Googled it and came across the an article by Jeff Banowetz on competitor.com where Dean discusses the stunt:

“It sounds crazy, but in 2012 I want to embark on a global marathon
expedition that involves running a marathon in every country in the world within a one year time period. Right now there’s over 200 countries in the world. And that would include Afghanistan, North Korea, and places that are tough to get into.”

The toughest part of such a trip may just be getting all the countries to get with the program.

“It will be five years in the planning,” he says. “The logistics behind it will be as interesting as the running. I’m working with the state department and trying to get permits.”

It’ll be interesting to see if he can get the logistics together for something like this.

Secondly – and I’ll be honest here – I don’t know a lot about Dean Karnazes. I haven’t read any of his books, but I know a lot people like him. I also know a lot of people don’t like him. From what I have seen I think he is a pretty savvy promoter. I have noticed that he seems to get a lot of attention for ordering pizzas during his ultra-runs. Maybe he’s looking for a pizza sponsorship.

He ordered pizza during his Chicago marathon double. My only quibble is this: while I can’t make out what restaurant the pizza is from, I can tell you its NOT deep dish. Dean, you are missing out. There is nothing like real Chicago deep-dish pizza. If you are in Chicago and ordering a pizza you have to go with the real thing. Trust me, you’ll love it.

Here's the full Jeff Banowetz article:
http://running.competitor.com/2009/10/news/dean-karnazes-will-run-chicago-twice_6066

The 2009 NYC Marathon - in 60 Seconds (November 5) Marathons are always an amazing spectacle. The sights, the sounds and yes even the smells add up to a remarkable experience. Brooklyn photographer Mehmet Dokumcu has found a way to condense the 2009 NYC Marathon into one minute. He set up his camera on 4th Avenue between miles 6 and 7, and programmed it to take a picture every five seconds, then put all the photos together into a one minute video. The result is pretty amazing. You can watch it below.

2009 NYC Marathon Timelapse from mdkmc on Vimeo.

"Top Ten Thoughts That Go Through Your Mind When Running The New York City Marathon." (November 3) In honor of Meb Keflezighi's amazing win on Sunday, let's step aside from the business of running for a sec and have some fun - though I will say I bet those sponsors that dropped Meb a couple of years ago, wish they had him back now.

Plus a bonus five
"Am I experiencing a runner's high or is it the bus fumes?"
"Perhaps eating a calzone every mile is too much carbo loading"
"Would it be better to finish second and not have to go on Letterman?"
"I shouldn't have filled up on Halloween candy this morning"
"This would be a lot easier if I didn't keep stepping in wads of chewing gum"
"Newark is beautiful this time of year -- oh crap, I went the wrong way"

How Much Would the Oprah Line Mean to the NYC Marathon? (November 3) Recently a longstanding debate was reignited within the running community – namely – “How slow is too slow when running a marathon?”

I offered up a simple solution. One involving one of the most revered cultural figures of our time. Someone who millions of people already seek-out for advice on a variety of topics. Someone that when she gives her acceptance to a product or book, you can just start printing the money because it will sell like hotcakes. Someone so well known she only needs to go by one name. Oprah.

(For what its worth – I have it from an excellent source that Oprah is a regular reader of The Biz Runner)

For those that missed it (and Oprah would be mad to learn that you did), here is the general idea:
Those that spend more time on the course, pay a higher marathon
fee. …it’s well known that Oprah ran the Marine Corps Marathon in 1994 with a time of 4:29:15. Perhaps the “Oprah Line” is the logical place to start. Institute the sliding scale of $2 in additional fees for every 15 minutes past 4:30:00 – forever now known as “THE OPRAH LINE.

I got a lot of emails on the Oprah line. So I decided to break down the numbers behind the recent New York City Marathon to see exactly how the Oprah Line would work.

Before we begin, let me point out (if you haven’t figured it out by now) that this is a totally unscientific approach. No science whatsoever. Just a running website hoping to solve a long-standing problem (and maybe land an appearance on one of the most watched talk shows in history. That would be amazing for website traffic.)

If this idea were to be seriously implemented you would need to carve out fee exceptions for the many different reasons some groups of runners stay on the course longer, such as age or physical handicap. I will leave the debate of how to fully execute the idea to more serious sites. C’mon - I offered up the idea, lets let someone else execute it. I do want credit creating the “Oprah Line” though.

OK – back to the numbers - these are based on the “Unofficial Results” as posted on the http://www.ingnycmarathon/ website. According to the results 43,512 people are listed as finishing the marathon. Of those, more than 59% beat the Oprah Line – 25,740. That includes 7 people who scraped in with a 4:29:59. Congrats to them. You’ve saved two bucks and "BO'd" the New York City Marathon.

Looking at the breakdown the rest of the way, the numbers below should be self-explanatory: the time category, the “extended time on the course fee”, the total number of runners in that category and the total fees that would be paid by runners in that group.

4:30:00-4:44:59 ($2) 4635 $9270
4:45:00-4:59:59 ($4) 4062 $16248
5:00:00-5:14:59 ($6) 2559 $15354
5:15:00-5:29:59 ($8) 1836 $14688
5:30:00-5:44:59 ($10) 1367 $13670
5:45:00-5:59:59 ($12) 1009 $12108
6:00:00-6:14:59 ($14) 645 $7740
6:15:00-6:29:59 ($16) 511 $8176
6:30:00-6:44:59 ($18) 395 $7110
6:45:00-6:59:59 ($20) 313 $6260
7:00:00-7:14:59 ($22) 113 $2486
7:15:00-7:29:59 ($24) 91 $2184
7:30:00-7:44:59 ($26) 69 $1794
7:45:00-7:59:59 ($28) 33 $924

The New York City Marathon course is open until 630pm. For purposes of this exercise I closed the course at 8 hours. Anyone finishing over 8 hours is excluded here solely for purpose of keeping the math simple. So the total raised by those failing to hit the Oprah Line is $118,000. Compared to the NYC marathon’s estimated budget of $18 million – it’s a drop in the bucket - but every little bit helps keeps the costs down for everyone.

A final note: Oprah’s producers...you can reach me at thebizrunner@gmail.com

Here's the original post: http://www.thebizrunner.com/2009/10/if-you-cant-outrun-oprah-should-you-pay.html

Would You Run a Marathon in Dress Shoes? You might if you worked for Rockport. The company has a group of executives/runners who will be wearing Rockport DresSports dress shoes for the entire marathon. According to the companies website, each DresSports shoe weighs less than the average running shoe.

The promotion isn’t the first time Rockport has pulled such a stunt. The CEO Tony Post ran the NYC marathon in 1990 wearing Rockports – after training for only six weeks. He tells the Women’s Wear Daily he trained by wearing shoes on runs during his lunch break:
“A lot of people probably don’t know this, but at lunchtime, I used to run like 5, 6 or 7 miles. So [by the time of the marathon], I was quite used to running in Rockport shoes. I was doing it all the time.” Post said in the end, his race shoes were a standard pair of DresSports. “You could literally take the shoes out of the box and go run a
marathon.”
Rockport will have a booth at the NY Marathon Expo where they will have what they are calling “limited-edition, marathon-inspired styles.” Sounds like one way to get people taking around the office.

By the way, wondering how well Tony Post ran in his Rockports? According to the NYC Marathon website, Anthony Post, age 33, from Massachusetts (Rockport is HQ’s in Canton, MA) finished the 1990 marahon with a gun time of 3:02:38. On six weeks training? In dress shoes?

Now THAT’S an endorsement.

http://www.wwd.com/footwear-news/rockport-returns-to-nyc-marathon-2354832?gnewsid=2738b711e73d86e0aafb960237a076b3

Big Brother is Watching What Brand of Shoe You Are Wearing At least they are if you’re running the New York City marathon. “They/Big Brother” is the athletic apparel maker Asics. The company is organizing a “shoe count” team to see how many NYC Marathon runners are wearing their brand.

They’ve done it the last two years. Here’s what they found:

2007 55%
2008 51%

According to the company they collect the info by having employees count one specific brand of footwear each during the 2.5 hours after the winner crosses the marathon finish line. I have no idea how they can claim any “accuracy” with these results but I do appreciate the effort.

The shoe count team will be back at it again this year, so if you are running New York this year and see someone staring intently at your feet at the finishers area, it’s probably them. Or just a New York city nutcase. Either way don’t make eye contact and just keep moving.

In other Asics news, the company commissioned a study of 80 million European runners. It seems they are all in a New York State of Mind. 15.2 million Europeans say New York is the top of the list of marathons they wish to run.

Fantasy Sports Hits the NYC Marathon (October 27) Fantasy sports are big business – by some estimates Americans spend nearly $1 billion a year on fantasy games.

Now a fantasy type contest is coming to the NYC Marathon – for free. Toyota is sponsoring a “Pick The Winners” contest. All you need to do is log onto www.pickthechampions.com and pick the winners of the men’s and women’s races.

Everyone with the correct predictions will be entered into a sweepstakes to win a 2010 Toyota Prius. Other prize winners will receive: One of five (5) pairs of ASICS GEL-Kayano® 16 running shoes and One of five (5) TIMEX IRONMAN® watches.

You know you’ll be watching the results closely anyway – why not put a little skin in the game? This is the second year the contest offered and it’s always one of my favorites.

On a side note – as a full-service site I attempted to find the odds for the 2009 Marathon to better help you handicap the winners. It does not appear as if you can REALLY wager on the marathon. In years past, a few online sports books (usually in Britain for some reason) actually placed odds on the runners and took NYC Marathon wagers. It looks like that business has gone bust – after an online search today, I could not find a single sportsbook taking marathon wagers. So you’ll have to settle for your chance to win a Prius.

The Demo Site

Email: thebizrunner@gmail.com

Categories

Dedicated to the money and marketing behind running

Followers

Featured Video

RECENT COMMENTS